For 1980–2024, circulation-induced dynamics account for 45% of summer warming, dominate the European precipitation decline, and account for 55% of continental soil-moisture drying, with particularly large regional shares.
Dialectical view
Public arguments concluding to this claim, and structural counter-arguments that contest it. Each side may be empty — that is honest, not absent.
Arguments for (1)
Arguments against (2)
- The thermodynamic component is not independent of circulation: under constant PD/NAT forcing the PD-minus-NAT soil-moisture difference varies from -0.39 to -1.00 mm with the circulation-induced base suntested-default
- The single-model nudging design constrains circulation to ERA5 in both HIST and NAT and suppresses soil-moisture-to-circulation feedbacks, so the clean dynamic/thermodynamic separation it licenses is untested-default
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