The thermodynamic component is not independent of circulation: under constant PD/NAT forcing the PD-minus-NAT soil-moisture difference varies from -0.39 to -1.00 mm with the circulation-induced base state, so the additive HIST-NAT / NAT partition cannot be read as two fully separable drivers.

The thermodynamic component is not independent of circulation: under constant PD/NAT forcing the PD-minus-NAT soil-moisture difference varies from -0.39 to -1.00 mm with the circulation-induced base state, so the additive HIST-NAT / NAT partition cannot be read as two fully separable drivers.

• Even with constant forcing in PD and NAT, the thermodynamic soil-moisture difference varies substantially from year to year: its mean is −0.72 mm, with annual differences from −0.39 to −1.00 mm.
  Evidence for this premise (4)

  European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Dynamic warm and dry conditions amplify thermodynamic drying

  On average, the difference in JJA soil moisture between PD and NAT is −0.72 mm. However, the year-to-year differences range between −0.39 and −1.00 mm

  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-5-p1

  European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Dynamic warm and dry conditions amplify thermodynamic drying

  On average, the difference in JJA soil moisture between PD and NAT is −0.72 mm. However, the year-to-year differences range between −0.39 and −1.00 mm

  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-5-p1

  European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Dynamic warm and dry conditions amplify thermodynamic drying

  On average, the difference in JJA soil moisture between PD and NAT is −0.72 mm. However, the year-to-year differences range between −0.39 and −1.00 mm

  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-5-p1

  European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Dynamic warm and dry conditions amplify thermodynamic drying

  On average, the difference in JJA soil moisture between PD and NAT is −0.72 mm. However, the year-to-year differences range between −0.39 and −1.00 mm

  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-5-p1
• These PD–NAT variations reflect circulation-related changes in the base state that alter the effect of thermodynamic forcing.
  Evidence for this premise (2)

  European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Dynamic warm and dry conditions amplify thermodynamic drying

  Variations in these differences reflect how changes in the base state associated with circulation variability influence the effect of thermodynamic forcing.

  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-5-p2

  European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Dynamic warm and dry conditions amplify thermodynamic drying

  Variations in these differences reflect how changes in the base state associated with circulation variability influence the effect of thermodynamic forcing. Focusing on two key metrics of European drying, soil moisture and VPD, we find a strong relationship between the dynamical conditions during a summer season and the thermodynamic component: the thermodynamic drying signal is stronger under circulation-induced warm and dry conditions.

  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-5-p2

These are challenges this argument’s reasoning pattern must still withstand. Answering them on Isonomia strengthens the argument.

• Could another cause explain the effect?Open
• Is this merely correlation (post hoc)?Open

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