From 1980 to 2024, warming is 0.64 °C per decade in HIST and 0.29 °C per decade in NAT, so the circulation-induced component accounts for 45% of total summer warming.
Evidence (2)
European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Partitioning post-1980 hydroclimate trends between circulation and thermodynamic forcing
the circulation-induced component accounts for 45% of the total summer warming trend since 1980
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-3-p4
European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Partitioning post-1980 hydroclimate trends between circulation and thermodynamic forcing
A continuous warming trend sets in after 1980 with a rate of 0.64 and 0.29 °C per decade in HIST and NAT, respectively (Fig. 2a). Hence, the circulation-induced component accounts for 45% of the total summer warming trend since 1980. The spatial pattern of the thermodynamic trend is broadly homogenous and slightly enhanced over eastern Europe, whereas the dynamic trend pattern is more heterogenous and more enhanced over central and eastern Europe (Fig. 2e and the comparison to other datasets in Supplementary Fig. 2).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-3-p4
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