Distributional analyses (RAND; UC Institute of Transportation Studies) find ultimate incidence depends on revenue use: recycling into transit and rebates makes the package net-progressive, because lower-income residents disproportionately ride transit and bear the pollution that falls, and NYC's air-quality gains were largest in dense corridors.

Evidence (1)

Congestion pricing equity depends on revenue use

RAND and UC ITS find the ultimate distributional effect depends on how revenue is used; recycling into transit/rebates can make the package progressive.

https://its.berkeley.edu/publications/congestion-pricing-can-be-equitable-if-portion-revenue-returned-drivers

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