HIST soil-moisture anomalies correlate with ERA5 at 0.56 monthly and 0.64 for JJA anomalies across the domain; all sources show a negative JJA trend since the 1980s.
Evidence (2)
European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Circulation-storyline design and validation of nudged simulations
JJA soil moisture anomalies are reproduced with a higher accuracy (Pearson correlation = 0.64
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-2-p11
European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Circulation-storyline design and validation of nudged simulations
The Pearson correlation between monthly 10-cm soil moisture anomalies in HIST and the first soil moisture layer in ERA5 (7 cm depth) is 0.56 across the study domain, with higher values in the west (Fig. 1e). JJA soil moisture anomalies are reproduced with a higher accuracy (Pearson correlation = 0.64; Supplementary Fig. 1), and all data sources show a negative JJA trend since the 1980s (Fig. 1f), but soils are generally drier in the fully coupled LENS2 than in the HIST simulation due to the precipitation bias of LENS2.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-2-p11
Respond to this claim on Isonomia
Build or challenge arguments with structured reasoning in the Digital Agora.