The forced LENS2 ensemble mean has the same sign as all observed weather-regime trends, but the observed WR2 and WR3 trends lie entirely outside the ensemble range, and only 7 of 100 members have a more negative WR1 trend than observed.
Evidence (4)
European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Weather-regime changes as mechanisms of circulation-driven drying
the observed WR2 and WR3 trends fall entirely outside the range of LENS2 trends.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-4-p3
European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Weather-regime changes as mechanisms of circulation-driven drying
the observed WR2 and WR3 trends fall entirely outside the range of LENS2 trends.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-4-p3
European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Weather-regime changes as mechanisms of circulation-driven drying
The ensemble mean trend agrees in sign with all observed WR trends; however, only 7 out of 100 members exhibit a stronger negative WR1 trend than observed, and the observed WR2 and WR3 trends fall entirely outside the range of LENS2 trends. This suggests that internal variability, rather than the forced response alone, plays a likely dominant role in driving the observed WR trends over the analysis period.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-4-p3
European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Weather-regime changes as mechanisms of circulation-driven drying
The ensemble mean trend agrees in sign with all observed WR trends; however, only 7 out of 100 members exhibit a stronger negative WR1 trend than observed, and the observed WR2 and WR3 trends fall entirely outside the range of LENS2 trends. This suggests that internal variability, rather than the forced response alone, plays a likely dominant role in driving the observed WR trends over the analysis period.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-4-p3
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