Although the LENS2 ensemble-mean weather-regime trend has the same sign as every observed trend, only 7 of 100 members have a more negative WR1 trend than observed, and observed WR2 and WR3 trends lie wholly outside the LENS2 range.
Evidence (4)
European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Partitioning post-1980 hydroclimate trends between circulation and thermodynamic forcing
the observed WR2 and WR3 trends fall entirely outside the range of LENS2 trends
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-3-p10
European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Partitioning post-1980 hydroclimate trends between circulation and thermodynamic forcing
the observed WR2 and WR3 trends fall entirely outside the range of LENS2 trends
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-3-p10
European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Partitioning post-1980 hydroclimate trends between circulation and thermodynamic forcing
The ensemble mean trend agrees in sign with all observed WR trends; however, only 7 out of 100 members exhibit a stronger negative WR1 trend than observed, and the observed WR2 and WR3 trends fall entirely outside the range of LENS2 trends.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-3-p10
European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Partitioning post-1980 hydroclimate trends between circulation and thermodynamic forcing
The ensemble mean trend agrees in sign with all observed WR trends; however, only 7 out of 100 members exhibit a stronger negative WR1 trend than observed, and the observed WR2 and WR3 trends fall entirely outside the range of LENS2 trends.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-3-p10
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