The nudged CESM2 analysis attributes the majority of the 1980–2024 European soil-moisture drying trend and about 42% of the VPD increase to circulation-induced trends.

Evidence (1)

European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Projection implications, attribution uncertainty, and limitations

circulation-induced trends caused the majority of the 1980–2024 drying trend in soil moisture and about 42% of the increasing trend in VPD

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-6-p1

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