Because nudged HIST reproduces key observed temperature, precipitation, soil-moisture, and VPD variability and long-term trends, the framewo
Because nudged HIST reproduces key observed temperature, precipitation, soil-moisture, and VPD variability and long-term trends, the framework is sufficiently validated for this decomposition.
Paper reconstruction — Dunkl, Bastos & Sippel (2026), European summer drying
Monthly precipitation anomalies in HIST have an average domain correlation of 0.85 with ERA5, although correlations are strongest in western Europe and decline eastward.
For 2015–2024 monthly anomalies, HIST temperature agrees strongly with ERA5, with a domain-wide Pearson correlation of 0.93.
Monthly VPD anomalies in HIST and ERA5 correlate at 0.73, and JJA VPD trends are similar in HIST, LENS2 and ERA5.
HIST soil-moisture anomalies correlate with ERA5 at 0.56 monthly and 0.64 for JJA anomalies across the domain; all sources show a negative JJA trend since the 1980s.