{
  "identifier": "o4aCB3Rd",
  "argumentId": "cmokxnro2000n8c314nrq7gam",
  "permalink": "https://www.isonomia.app/a/o4aCB3Rd",
  "version": 1,
  "contentHash": "sha256:65368100bd4731f093e4c063bb5db91673b5fe49cccb16d3db02dcf689f87917",
  "immutablePermalink": "https://www.isonomia.app/a/o4aCB3Rd@65368100bd4731f093e4c063bb5db91673b5fe49cccb16d3db02dcf689f87917",
  "isoId": "iso:argument:o4aCB3Rd",
  "isoUrl": "https://www.isonomia.app/iso/argument/o4aCB3Rd",
  "doi": null,
  "retrievedAt": "2026-07-16T18:19:05.848Z",
  "createdAt": "2026-04-30T03:37:25.970Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-01T21:42:58.864Z",
  "conclusion": {
    "claimId": "cmokxn9xh00048c31ndx43vxs",
    "moid": "a670255b967c5b8108ed52678534aadc274af1b85d4528240dcd267e2592e9dd",
    "text": "The empirical association between adolescent social media use and mental health outcomes is small and methodologically fragile; the evidence does not warrant attributing the post-2012 youth mental health decline principally to smartphones, and the popular synthesis on this question has run ahead of its data.\n"
  },
  "premises": [
    {
      "claimId": "cmokxncd0000c8c31bndo07wg",
      "moid": "a36f43adebfa7c6649ec6719acfd31294e558c42bf98c13e55c5a6cbf4d38c70",
      "text": "Specification-curve analyses (Orben & Przybylski 2019 and successors) systematically vary analytic choices across thousands of plausible model specifications and find that the median association between adolescent digital technology use and well-being explains less than half a percent of variance — comparable in magnitude to associations with eating potatoes or wearing glasses.\n",
      "isImplicit": false
    },
    {
      "claimId": "cmokxncxu000e8c31bsyj1hp0",
      "moid": "dbb4e2387dd45bebd143efd0894eae2b6f0c63ef0e34d01ac346867e39ca017b",
      "text": "Candice Odgers is a developmental psychologist at UC Irvine, past president of the Society for Research on Adolescence, and a methodological specialist in adolescent well-being research; her 2024 *Nature* review of the same evidence base concludes that the data do not support a primary causal role for smartphones.\n",
      "isImplicit": false
    },
    {
      "claimId": "cmonf0rpk000l8crobrtm6amw",
      "moid": "43aa5fee4dca4f8b9fb82b1526db1283cd09a92f8b47c33979ab0a3dd3cadd88",
      "text": "TODO: a single claim summarizing the set of plausible confounders (declining sleep, less unsupervised face-to-face time, changes in clinical screening practice) that the available studies cannot cleanly separate from social-media exposure.\n",
      "isImplicit": false
    }
  ],
  "scheme": {
    "id": "sch_b762e6397e33b630",
    "key": "expert_opinion",
    "name": "Argument from Expert Opinion",
    "title": "Expert Opinion",
    "canonicalKey": "expert_opinion",
    "behaviourFingerprint": "612a8f02bea81aac9c3bece0f3f6a767bb050f2e77b08fc9f242a55cc0d22dd7",
    "catalogueHealth": {
      "isArgumentPattern": true,
      "isDialogueMeta": false,
      "isTestPlaceholder": false,
      "duplicateOf": null,
      "canonicalKey": "expert_opinion",
      "clusterTagMissing": false,
      "fingerprintMaterialised": true
    }
  },
  "evidence": [
    {
      "evidenceId": "cmokxntco000q8c31cku67ph2",
      "uri": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "title": "Odgers — The great rewiring: is social media really behind an epidemic of teenage mental illness? (Nature 2024)",
      "citation": null,
      "contentSha256": "sha256:e1902f75c7795021c03ddecbc939d2428781e468f145ab502af2ad65b523c60e",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T20:09:36.013Z"
    },
    {
      "evidenceId": "cmokxntco000r8c31l1cotq2g",
      "uri": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "title": "Orben & Przybylski — The association between adolescent well-being and digital technology use (Nature Human Behaviour 2019)",
      "citation": null,
      "contentSha256": "sha256:974682f62413709901790f759785021dbc52b72afdf1dde70e7c179427a61b07",
      "archivedUrl": null,
      "archivedAt": null
    },
    {
      "evidenceId": "cmonf6uz000158clbzkb2mtx5",
      "uri": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "title": "Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)",
      "citation": null,
      "contentSha256": "sha256:825e4ed5496a1155bc92ae621bd7a40fabe7528c546e64c391de1649a20517d0",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:23:52.297Z"
    },
    {
      "evidenceId": "cmonf6uz000168clbl8rijez2",
      "uri": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "title": "Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)",
      "citation": null,
      "contentSha256": "sha256:363d03ce745dd59dc34dddf818d634421748fe10188d1eb626c257723f6109eb",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:23:51.218Z"
    },
    {
      "evidenceId": "cmonfaipy00158cksiuedhq6v",
      "uri": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "title": "Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)",
      "citation": null,
      "contentSha256": "sha256:3d732086b7d04d39ec87472e8e97146c85cb5e02ccce07e5b08d820555cb7140",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:26:42.386Z"
    },
    {
      "evidenceId": "cmonfaipy00168ckslpqsnscp",
      "uri": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "title": "Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)",
      "citation": null,
      "contentSha256": "sha256:1f2ca3d78ef2e441a1e3a765c46e3d33bc819f2486069b3634906ecb5ac1408b",
      "archivedUrl": null,
      "archivedAt": null
    },
    {
      "evidenceId": "cmonfh2r800158cwou7uzfbys",
      "uri": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "title": "Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)",
      "citation": null,
      "contentSha256": "sha256:2ea65dd2834dff3afeef6362c4a04e15f03e9e0dd6a5c67f44236f8dcdba2f40",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:32:52.974Z"
    },
    {
      "evidenceId": "cmonfh2r800168cwo181fh0mj",
      "uri": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "title": "Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)",
      "citation": null,
      "contentSha256": "sha256:09e490105cc10e9660bd1aeefd25bc1c9338d536fd71f923b4405d4dd0e36dbf",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:32:52.970Z"
    },
    {
      "evidenceId": "cmonfigt600158ckl7h455lru",
      "uri": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "title": "Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)",
      "citation": null,
      "contentSha256": "sha256:486c879bbebcde6cfd719c2e4014989c69739036312253f69cb1e9218ce006e8",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:32:53.052Z"
    },
    {
      "evidenceId": "cmonfigt600168ckluupwswha",
      "uri": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "title": "Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)",
      "citation": null,
      "contentSha256": "sha256:d476204bcb4042cfa15ad84bf1dd2096b97ef51c602eee70c8cc9b7b8207edb8",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:32:53.311Z"
    },
    {
      "evidenceId": "cmonfvp7z00198c3fqwu3bvux",
      "uri": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "title": "Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)",
      "citation": null,
      "contentSha256": "sha256:ce5e9b92d505e49e28133bea790d292f5df0ad86f956e962089f6a14ca1e6d3a",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:43:10.961Z"
    },
    {
      "evidenceId": "cmonfvp7z001a8c3fd1oyyvb7",
      "uri": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "title": "Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)",
      "citation": null,
      "contentSha256": "sha256:ff86ecacfea32a75ec73b7b2ee22752b8870f788ba7da53768fe3d5ba69a8ce4",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:43:10.962Z"
    }
  ],
  "structuredCitations": [
    {
      "id": "cmokxntco000q8c31cku67ph2",
      "title": "Odgers — The great rewiring: is social media really behind an epidemic of teenage mental illness? (Nature 2024)",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "doi": null,
      "publisher": "nature.com",
      "accessedAt": "2026-05-01T20:09:36.014Z",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T20:09:36.013Z",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "contentSha256": "sha256:e1902f75c7795021c03ddecbc939d2428781e468f145ab502af2ad65b523c60e",
      "quote": null,
      "quoteAnchor": null
    },
    {
      "id": "cmokxntco000r8c31l1cotq2g",
      "title": "Orben & Przybylski — The association between adolescent well-being and digital technology use (Nature Human Behaviour 2019)",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "doi": null,
      "publisher": "nature.com",
      "accessedAt": "2026-05-01T20:10:14.251Z",
      "archivedAt": null,
      "archivedUrl": null,
      "contentSha256": "sha256:974682f62413709901790f759785021dbc52b72afdf1dde70e7c179427a61b07",
      "quote": null,
      "quoteAnchor": null
    },
    {
      "id": "cmonf6uz000158clbzkb2mtx5",
      "title": "Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "doi": null,
      "publisher": "nature.com",
      "accessedAt": "2026-05-01T21:23:52.297Z",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:23:52.297Z",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "contentSha256": "sha256:825e4ed5496a1155bc92ae621bd7a40fabe7528c546e64c391de1649a20517d0",
      "quote": null,
      "quoteAnchor": null
    },
    {
      "id": "cmonf6uz000168clbl8rijez2",
      "title": "Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "doi": null,
      "publisher": "nature.com",
      "accessedAt": "2026-05-01T21:23:51.218Z",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:23:51.218Z",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "contentSha256": "sha256:363d03ce745dd59dc34dddf818d634421748fe10188d1eb626c257723f6109eb",
      "quote": null,
      "quoteAnchor": null
    },
    {
      "id": "cmonfaipy00158cksiuedhq6v",
      "title": "Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "doi": null,
      "publisher": "nature.com",
      "accessedAt": "2026-05-01T21:26:42.386Z",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:26:42.386Z",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "contentSha256": "sha256:3d732086b7d04d39ec87472e8e97146c85cb5e02ccce07e5b08d820555cb7140",
      "quote": null,
      "quoteAnchor": null
    },
    {
      "id": "cmonfaipy00168ckslpqsnscp",
      "title": "Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "doi": null,
      "publisher": "nature.com",
      "accessedAt": "2026-05-01T21:26:54.296Z",
      "archivedAt": null,
      "archivedUrl": null,
      "contentSha256": "sha256:1f2ca3d78ef2e441a1e3a765c46e3d33bc819f2486069b3634906ecb5ac1408b",
      "quote": null,
      "quoteAnchor": null
    },
    {
      "id": "cmonfh2r800158cwou7uzfbys",
      "title": "Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "doi": null,
      "publisher": "nature.com",
      "accessedAt": "2026-05-01T21:32:52.974Z",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:32:52.974Z",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "contentSha256": "sha256:2ea65dd2834dff3afeef6362c4a04e15f03e9e0dd6a5c67f44236f8dcdba2f40",
      "quote": null,
      "quoteAnchor": null
    },
    {
      "id": "cmonfh2r800168cwo181fh0mj",
      "title": "Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "doi": null,
      "publisher": "nature.com",
      "accessedAt": "2026-05-01T21:32:52.970Z",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:32:52.970Z",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "contentSha256": "sha256:09e490105cc10e9660bd1aeefd25bc1c9338d536fd71f923b4405d4dd0e36dbf",
      "quote": null,
      "quoteAnchor": null
    },
    {
      "id": "cmonfigt600158ckl7h455lru",
      "title": "Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "doi": null,
      "publisher": "nature.com",
      "accessedAt": "2026-05-01T21:32:53.052Z",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:32:53.052Z",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "contentSha256": "sha256:486c879bbebcde6cfd719c2e4014989c69739036312253f69cb1e9218ce006e8",
      "quote": null,
      "quoteAnchor": null
    },
    {
      "id": "cmonfigt600168ckluupwswha",
      "title": "Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "doi": null,
      "publisher": "nature.com",
      "accessedAt": "2026-05-01T21:32:53.311Z",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:32:53.311Z",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "contentSha256": "sha256:d476204bcb4042cfa15ad84bf1dd2096b97ef51c602eee70c8cc9b7b8207edb8",
      "quote": null,
      "quoteAnchor": null
    },
    {
      "id": "cmonfvp7z00198c3fqwu3bvux",
      "title": "Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "doi": null,
      "publisher": "nature.com",
      "accessedAt": "2026-05-01T21:43:10.961Z",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:43:10.961Z",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2",
      "contentSha256": "sha256:ce5e9b92d505e49e28133bea790d292f5df0ad86f956e962089f6a14ca1e6d3a",
      "quote": null,
      "quoteAnchor": null
    },
    {
      "id": "cmonfvp7z001a8c3fd1oyyvb7",
      "title": "Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "doi": null,
      "publisher": "nature.com",
      "accessedAt": "2026-05-01T21:43:10.962Z",
      "archivedAt": "2026-05-01T21:43:10.962Z",
      "archivedUrl": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1",
      "contentSha256": "sha256:ff86ecacfea32a75ec73b7b2ee22752b8870f788ba7da53768fe3d5ba69a8ce4",
      "quote": null,
      "quoteAnchor": null
    }
  ],
  "criticalQuestions": {
    "schemeKey": "expert_opinion",
    "total": 4,
    "answered": [
      {
        "cqKey": "domain_fit",
        "text": "Is E an expert in D?",
        "attackKind": "UNDERCUTS",
        "cqStatusId": "cmonf817c002n8clb3pm3nuac",
        "schemeKey": "expert_opinion",
        "premiseType": "ORDINARY",
        "isSchemeRequired": true,
        "inheritedFromParentScheme": false,
        "cqStatusEnum": "SATISFIED",
        "challenged": false,
        "challengeCount": 0,
        "cqRequiresEvidence": false,
        "cqBurden": "PROPONENT",
        "answerSelfCanonical": false,
        "answerAuthorKind": "HUMAN",
        "status": "satisfied"
      }
    ],
    "partiallyAnswered": [
      {
        "cqKey": "consensus",
        "text": "Do experts in D disagree on φ?",
        "attackKind": "UNDERCUTS",
        "cqStatusId": "cmonf8369002s8clb8vp6vb9r",
        "schemeKey": "expert_opinion",
        "premiseType": "ORDINARY",
        "isSchemeRequired": true,
        "inheritedFromParentScheme": false,
        "cqStatusEnum": "PENDING_REVIEW",
        "challenged": false,
        "challengeCount": 0,
        "cqRequiresEvidence": false,
        "cqBurden": "PROPONENT",
        "answerSelfCanonical": false,
        "answerAuthorKind": "HUMAN",
        "status": "pending_review"
      }
    ],
    "unanswered": [
      {
        "cqKey": "bias",
        "text": "Is E biased?",
        "attackKind": "UNDERCUTS",
        "cqStatusId": null,
        "schemeKey": "expert_opinion",
        "premiseType": "ORDINARY",
        "isSchemeRequired": true,
        "inheritedFromParentScheme": false,
        "cqStatusEnum": null,
        "challenged": false,
        "challengeCount": 0,
        "cqRequiresEvidence": false,
        "cqBurden": "PROPONENT",
        "answerSelfCanonical": false,
        "answerAuthorKind": "HUMAN",
        "status": "missing"
      },
      {
        "cqKey": "basis",
        "text": "Is E’s assertion based on evidence?",
        "attackKind": "UNDERMINES",
        "cqStatusId": null,
        "schemeKey": "expert_opinion",
        "premiseType": "ORDINARY",
        "isSchemeRequired": true,
        "inheritedFromParentScheme": false,
        "cqStatusEnum": null,
        "challenged": false,
        "challengeCount": 0,
        "cqRequiresEvidence": false,
        "cqBurden": "PROPONENT",
        "answerSelfCanonical": false,
        "answerAuthorKind": "HUMAN",
        "status": "missing"
      }
    ]
  },
  "schemeInstance": null,
  "confidence": null,
  "dialecticalStatus": {
    "incomingAttacks": 0,
    "incomingSupports": 2,
    "incomingAttackEdges": 1,
    "criticalQuestionsRequired": 4,
    "criticalQuestionsAnswered": 2,
    "criticalQuestionsOpen": 2,
    "standingScore": 0.75,
    "isTested": true,
    "testedness": "well_tested",
    "standingState": "tested-survived",
    "standingDepth": {
      "challengers": 1,
      "independentReviewers": 1,
      "lastChallengedAt": "2026-04-30T03:37:50.397Z",
      "lastDefendedAt": "2026-05-01T21:24:30.320Z",
      "confidence": "thin"
    },
    "fitnessBreakdown": {
      "total": 5.3,
      "components": {
        "cqAnswered": {
          "count": 2,
          "weight": 1,
          "contribution": 2
        },
        "supportEdges": {
          "count": 2,
          "weight": 0.5,
          "contribution": 1
        },
        "attackEdges": {
          "count": 1,
          "weight": -0.7,
          "contribution": -0.7
        },
        "attackCAs": {
          "count": 0,
          "weight": -1,
          "contribution": 0
        },
        "evidenceWithProvenance": {
          "count": 12,
          "weight": 0.25,
          "contribution": 3
        }
      },
      "weights": {
        "cqAnswered": 1,
        "supportEdges": 0.5,
        "attackEdges": -0.7,
        "attackCAs": -1,
        "evidenceWithProvenance": 0.25
      }
    }
  },
  "deliberation": {
    "id": "cmokxn8sk00008c31xk97r1ap",
    "title": "Showcase: Smartphones, social media, and adolescent mental health"
  },
  "author": {
    "id": "TODO-opp1-auth-id",
    "displayName": null,
    "kind": "HUMAN",
    "aiProvenance": null
  }
}