aif version: AIF-Core-2011
mesh aif profile: 1.0
exported at: 2026-08-30T19:15:47.318Z
attestation:
  identifier: o4aCB3Rd
  argument id: cmokxnro2000n8c314nrq7gam
  permalink: https://www.isonomia.app/a/o4aCB3Rd
  version: 1
  immutable permalink: https://www.isonomia.app/a/o4aCB3Rd@65368100bd4731f093e4c063bb5db91673b5fe49cccb16d3db02dcf689f87917
  iso id: iso:argument:o4aCB3Rd
  iso url: https://www.isonomia.app/iso/argument/o4aCB3Rd
  retrieved at: 2026-08-30T19:15:47.220Z
  created at: 2026-04-30T03:37:25.970Z
  updated at: 2026-05-01T21:42:58.864Z
  conclusion:
    claim id: cmokxn9xh00048c31ndx43vxs
    text: The empirical association between adolescent social media use and mental health outcomes is small and methodologically fragile; the evidence does not warrant attributing the post-2012 youth mental health decline principally to smartphones, and the popular synthesis on this question has run ahead of its data.
  premises:
    claim id: cmokxncd0000c8c31bndo07wg
    text: Specification-curve analyses (Orben & Przybylski 2019 and successors) systematically vary analytic choices across thousands of plausible model specifications and find that the median association between adolescent digital technology use and well-being explains less than half a percent of variance — comparable in magnitude to associations with eating potatoes or wearing glasses.
    is implicit: false
  premises:
    claim id: cmokxncxu000e8c31bsyj1hp0
    text: Candice Odgers is a developmental psychologist at UC Irvine, past president of the Society for Research on Adolescence, and a methodological specialist in adolescent well-being research; her 2024 *Nature* review of the same evidence base concludes that the data do not support a primary causal role for smartphones.
    is implicit: false
  premises:
    claim id: cmonf0rpk000l8crobrtm6amw
    text: TODO: a single claim summarizing the set of plausible confounders (declining sleep, less unsupervised face-to-face time, changes in clinical screening practice) that the available studies cannot cleanly separate from social-media exposure.
    is implicit: false
  scheme: Expert Opinion
    id: sch_b762e6397e33b630
    key: expert_opinion
    name: Argument from Expert Opinion
    canonical key: expert_opinion
    catalogue health:
      is argument pattern: true
      is dialogue meta: false
      is test placeholder: false
      canonical key: expert_opinion
      cluster tag missing: false
      fingerprint materialised: true
  evidence: Odgers — The great rewiring: is social media really behind an epidemic of teenage mental illness? (Nature 2024)
    evidence id: cmokxntco000q8c31cku67ph2
    uri: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    archived at: 2026-05-01T20:09:36.013Z
  evidence: Orben & Przybylski — The association between adolescent well-being and digital technology use (Nature Human Behaviour 2019)
    evidence id: cmokxntco000r8c31l1cotq2g
    uri: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
  evidence: Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)
    evidence id: cmonf6uz000158clbzkb2mtx5
    uri: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:23:52.297Z
  evidence: Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)
    evidence id: cmonf6uz000168clbl8rijez2
    uri: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:23:51.218Z
  evidence: Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)
    evidence id: cmonfaipy00158cksiuedhq6v
    uri: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:26:42.386Z
  evidence: Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)
    evidence id: cmonfaipy00168ckslpqsnscp
    uri: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
  evidence: Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)
    evidence id: cmonfh2r800158cwou7uzfbys
    uri: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:32:52.974Z
  evidence: Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)
    evidence id: cmonfh2r800168cwo181fh0mj
    uri: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:32:52.970Z
  evidence: Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)
    evidence id: cmonfigt600158ckl7h455lru
    uri: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:32:53.052Z
  evidence: Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)
    evidence id: cmonfigt600168ckluupwswha
    uri: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:32:53.311Z
  evidence: Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)
    evidence id: cmonfvp7z00198c3fqwu3bvux
    uri: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:43:10.961Z
  evidence: Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)
    evidence id: cmonfvp7z001a8c3fd1oyyvb7
    uri: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:43:10.962Z
  structured citations: Odgers — The great rewiring: is social media really behind an epidemic of teenage mental illness? (Nature 2024)
    id: cmokxntco000q8c31cku67ph2
    url: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    publisher: nature.com
    accessed at: 2026-05-01T20:09:36.014Z
    archived at: 2026-05-01T20:09:36.013Z
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
  structured citations: Orben & Przybylski — The association between adolescent well-being and digital technology use (Nature Human Behaviour 2019)
    id: cmokxntco000r8c31l1cotq2g
    url: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
    publisher: nature.com
    accessed at: 2026-05-01T20:10:14.251Z
  structured citations: Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)
    id: cmonf6uz000158clbzkb2mtx5
    url: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    publisher: nature.com
    accessed at: 2026-05-01T21:23:52.297Z
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:23:52.297Z
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
  structured citations: Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)
    id: cmonf6uz000168clbl8rijez2
    url: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
    publisher: nature.com
    accessed at: 2026-05-01T21:23:51.218Z
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:23:51.218Z
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
  structured citations: Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)
    id: cmonfaipy00158cksiuedhq6v
    url: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    publisher: nature.com
    accessed at: 2026-05-01T21:26:42.386Z
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:26:42.386Z
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
  structured citations: Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)
    id: cmonfaipy00168ckslpqsnscp
    url: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
    publisher: nature.com
    accessed at: 2026-05-01T21:26:54.296Z
  structured citations: Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)
    id: cmonfh2r800158cwou7uzfbys
    url: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    publisher: nature.com
    accessed at: 2026-05-01T21:32:52.974Z
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:32:52.974Z
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
  structured citations: Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)
    id: cmonfh2r800168cwo181fh0mj
    url: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
    publisher: nature.com
    accessed at: 2026-05-01T21:32:52.970Z
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:32:52.970Z
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
  structured citations: Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)
    id: cmonfigt600158ckl7h455lru
    url: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    publisher: nature.com
    accessed at: 2026-05-01T21:32:53.052Z
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:32:53.052Z
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
  structured citations: Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)
    id: cmonfigt600168ckluupwswha
    url: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
    publisher: nature.com
    accessed at: 2026-05-01T21:32:53.311Z
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:32:53.311Z
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
  structured citations: Odgers — The great rewiring (Nature 2024)
    id: cmonfvp7z00198c3fqwu3bvux
    url: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
    publisher: nature.com
    accessed at: 2026-05-01T21:43:10.961Z
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:43:10.961Z
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501200747/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2
  structured citations: Orben & Przybylski — Adolescent well-being and digital tech use (Nat Hum Behav 2019)
    id: cmonfvp7z001a8c3fd1oyyvb7
    url: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
    publisher: nature.com
    accessed at: 2026-05-01T21:43:10.962Z
    archived at: 2026-05-01T21:43:10.962Z
    archived url: https://web.archive.org/web/20260501201050/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0506-1
  critical questions:
    scheme key: expert_opinion
    total: 4
    answered:
      cq key: domain_fit
      text: Is E an expert in D?
      attack kind: UNDERCUTS
      cq status id: cmonf817c002n8clb3pm3nuac
      scheme key: expert_opinion
      premise type: ORDINARY
      is scheme required: true
      inherited from parent scheme: false
      cq status enum: SATISFIED
      challenged: false
      challenge count: 0
      cq requires evidence: false
      cq burden: PROPONENT
      answer self canonical: false
      answer author kind: HUMAN
      status: satisfied
    partially answered:
      cq key: consensus
      text: Do experts in D disagree on φ?
      attack kind: UNDERCUTS
      cq status id: cmonf8369002s8clb8vp6vb9r
      scheme key: expert_opinion
      premise type: ORDINARY
      is scheme required: true
      inherited from parent scheme: false
      cq status enum: PENDING_REVIEW
      challenged: false
      challenge count: 0
      cq requires evidence: false
      cq burden: PROPONENT
      answer self canonical: false
      answer author kind: HUMAN
      status: pending_review
  deliberation: Showcase: Smartphones, social media, and adolescent mental health

cmokxn9xh00048c31ndx43vxs
type: InformationNode
text: The empirical association between adolescent social media use and mental health outcomes is small and methodologically fragile; the evidence does not warrant attributing the post-2012 youth mental health decline principally to smartphones, and the popular synthesis on this question has run ahead of its data.

cmokxncd0000c8c31bndo07wg
type: InformationNode
text: Specification-curve analyses (Orben & Przybylski 2019 and successors) systematically vary analytic choices across thousands of plausible model specifications and find that the median association between adolescent digital technology use and well-being explains less than half a percent of variance — comparable in magnitude to associations with eating potatoes or wearing glasses.

cmokxncxu000e8c31bsyj1hp0
type: InformationNode
text: Candice Odgers is a developmental psychologist at UC Irvine, past president of the Society for Research on Adolescence, and a methodological specialist in adolescent well-being research; her 2024 *Nature* review of the same evidence base concludes that the data do not support a primary causal role for smartphones.

cmonf0rpk000l8crobrtm6amw
type: InformationNode
text: TODO: a single claim summarizing the set of plausible confounders (declining sleep, less unsupervised face-to-face time, changes in clinical screening practice) that the available studies cannot cleanly separate from social-media exposure.

Premise
from: I:cmokxncd0000c8c31bndo07wg
to: S:cmokxnro2000n8c314nrq7gam

Premise
from: I:cmokxncxu000e8c31bsyj1hp0
to: S:cmokxnro2000n8c314nrq7gam

Premise
from: I:cmonf0rpk000l8crobrtm6amw
to: S:cmokxnro2000n8c314nrq7gam

Conclusion
from: S:cmokxnro2000n8c314nrq7gam
to: I:cmokxn9xh00048c31ndx43vxs

expertise
type: CriticalQuestion
key: expertise
status: answered

hasCriticalQuestion
from: S:cmokxnro2000n8c314nrq7gam
to: CQ:cmokxnro2000n8c314nrq7gam:expertise

domain fit
type: CriticalQuestion
key: domain_fit
status: answered

hasCriticalQuestion
from: S:cmokxnro2000n8c314nrq7gam
to: CQ:cmokxnro2000n8c314nrq7gam:domain_fit

consensus
type: CriticalQuestion
key: consensus
status: pending_review

hasCriticalQuestion
from: S:cmokxnro2000n8c314nrq7gam
to: CQ:cmokxnro2000n8c314nrq7gam:consensus

cq key: bias
text: Is E biased?
attack kind: UNDERCUTS
scheme key: expert_opinion
premise type: ORDINARY
is scheme required: true
inherited from parent scheme: false
challenged: false
challenge count: 0
cq requires evidence: false
cq burden: PROPONENT
answer self canonical: false
answer author kind: HUMAN
status: missing

cq key: basis
text: Is E’s assertion based on evidence?
attack kind: UNDERMINES
scheme key: expert_opinion
premise type: ORDINARY
is scheme required: true
inherited from parent scheme: false
challenged: false
challenge count: 0
cq requires evidence: false
cq burden: PROPONENT
answer self canonical: false
answer author kind: HUMAN
status: missing

incoming attacks: 0
incoming supports: 2
incoming attack edges: 1
critical questions required: 4
critical questions answered: 2
critical questions open: 2
standing score: 0.75
is tested: true
testedness: well_tested
standing state: tested-survived
standing depth:
  challengers: 1
  independent reviewers: 1
  last challenged at: 2026-04-30T03:37:50.397Z
  last defended at: 2026-05-01T21:24:30.320Z
  confidence: thin
fitness breakdown:
  total: 5.3
  components:
    cq answered:
      count: 2
      weight: 1
      contribution: 2
    support edges:
      count: 2
      weight: 0.5
      contribution: 1
    attack edges:
      count: 1
      weight: -0.7
      contribution: -0.7
    attack c as:
      count: 0
      weight: -1
      contribution: 0
    evidence with provenance:
      count: 12
      weight: 0.25
      contribution: 3
  weights:
    cq answered: 1
    support edges: 0.5
    attack edges: -0.7
    attack c as: -1
    evidence with provenance: 0.25

Showcase: Smartphones, social media, and adolescent mental health
id: cmokxn8sk00008c31xk97r1ap

id: TODO-opp1-auth-id
kind: HUMAN

scheme key: expert_opinion
groups:
  ORDINARY:
    cq count: 4
    aif exposure: exposed
  ASSUMPTION:
    cq count: 0
    aif exposure: absent
  EXCEPTION:
    cq count: 0
    aif exposure: absent
lossy: false