Scaling Allen & Tucker's 10-day individual-level effect to 5–15% population-level contribution assumes linear extrapolation, no decay over 1
Scaling Allen & Tucker's 10-day individual-level effect to 5–15% population-level contribution assumes linear extrapolation, no decay over 12 years, and uniform exposure persistence that the framing identifies as unestablished.
Scaling from individual-level short-run effects to population-level long-run aggregates requires assumptions about exposure persistence, treatment heterogeneity, and network spillovers that the framing identifies as missing in experimental literature.
Allen & Tucker (2025) measure a 2-point shift on a 100-point scale within 10 days in a volunteer sample during a high-salience election period.
Short-term A/B tests exhibit novelty effects and adaptation effects; short-term null results do not predict long-term effects after user adaptation to algorithm changes.