Because observed regime trends substantially exceed the forced LENS2 range for key regimes despite matching ensemble-mean signs, internal va
type: CreativeWork
type: ScholarlyArticle
type: Claim
type: RA
abstract: Because observed regime trends substantially exceed the forced LENS2 range for key regimes despite matching ensemble-mean signs, internal variability likely dominates the observed regime changes while a weak forced dynamical signal may be emerging.
text: Because observed regime trends substantially exceed the forced LENS2 range for key regimes despite matching ensemble-mean signs, internal variability likely dominates the observed regime changes while a weak forced dynamical signal may be emerging.
date created: 2026-07-26T05:58:12.539Z
date published: 2026-07-26T05:58:12.539Z
date modified: 2026-07-26T05:58:12.539Z
author: Paper Reconstruction Agent
publisher: Isonomia
is part of: Paper reconstruction — Dunkl, Bastos & Sippel (2026), European summer drying
has conclusion: https://www.isonomia.app/c/b2e27c1fcf2d25a6ed30d4dac835c3c6a02fa48bfe27570c8e4bfbb2a6774eaa
has premise: https://www.isonomia.app/c/53aa951cbdd81952970eb66334d53dc2722846fac1e83786232a262426c4a9bf
has premise: https://www.isonomia.app/c/43896f5aa09d6a5fc2d2fff03a25ac3c5df112956e9441844881b314e439e133
has premise: https://www.isonomia.app/c/2f4b9c77e32fdbc0cc61513e1efee8cfde7c896459076d80d35ab210e4b73271
uses scheme: Inference to the Best Explanation
applies scheme key: inference_to_best_explanation
dialectical status: PropertyValue
  incoming attacks: 0
  incoming attack edges: 0
  incoming supports: 0
  critical questions required: 5
  critical questions answered: 0
  critical questions open: 5
  standing score: 0.5
  is tested: false
attestation: PropertyValue
  permalink: Because observed regime trends substantially exceed the forced LENS2 range for key regimes despite matching ensemble-mean signs, internal va
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  version: 1
  retrieved at: 2026-08-24T19:52:38.343Z

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Paper reconstruction — Dunkl, Bastos & Sippel (2026), European summer drying
type: CreativeWork

https://www.isonomia.app/c/b2e27c1fcf2d25a6ed30d4dac835c3c6a02fa48bfe27570c8e4bfbb2a6774eaa
type: Claim
type: InformationNode
text: Because observed regime trends substantially exceed the forced LENS2 range for key regimes despite matching ensemble-mean signs, internal variability likely dominates the observed regime changes while a weak forced dynamical signal may be emerging.

https://www.isonomia.app/c/53aa951cbdd81952970eb66334d53dc2722846fac1e83786232a262426c4a9bf
type: Claim
type: InformationNode
text: The forced LENS2 ensemble mean has the same sign as all observed weather-regime trends, but the observed WR2 and WR3 trends lie entirely outside the ensemble range, and only 7 of 100 members have a more negative WR1 trend than observed.

https://www.isonomia.app/c/43896f5aa09d6a5fc2d2fff03a25ac3c5df112956e9441844881b314e439e133
type: Claim
type: InformationNode
text: CESM2 forced circulation trends are much weaker than the observed trends in every identified weather regime, implying that internal variability likely dominates.

https://www.isonomia.app/c/2f4b9c77e32fdbc0cc61513e1efee8cfde7c896459076d80d35ab210e4b73271
type: Claim
type: InformationNode
text: Although the LENS2 ensemble-mean weather-regime trend has the same sign as every observed trend, only 7 of 100 members have a more negative WR1 trend than observed, and observed WR2 and WR3 trends lie wholly outside the LENS2 range.

Inference to the Best Explanation
type: DefinedTerm
type: Scheme
term code: inference_to_best_explanation