{
  "identifier": "M7gD5u7T",
  "argumentId": "cmoxtntxj066z8css5p507tjf",
  "permalink": "https://www.isonomia.app/a/M7gD5u7T",
  "version": 1,
  "contentHash": "sha256:c65c5316c8e7e8c4c75d3b17cc106131839bb3a55bb5ea90b8ebab5345191450",
  "immutablePermalink": "https://www.isonomia.app/a/M7gD5u7T@c65c5316c8e7e8c4c75d3b17cc106131839bb3a55bb5ea90b8ebab5345191450",
  "isoId": "iso:argument:M7gD5u7T",
  "isoUrl": "https://www.isonomia.app/iso/argument/M7gD5u7T",
  "doi": null,
  "retrievedAt": "2026-08-24T19:55:27.544Z",
  "createdAt": "2026-05-09T04:06:30.727Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-09T04:06:30.727Z",
  "conclusion": {
    "claimId": "cmoxtnsfd066w8cssx9i0pohr",
    "moid": "9cda485fe9083fb29ae7b39e4b4f76343789008507e9237c91219d89f23dfc00",
    "text": "The pre-2012 upward trend in affective polarization driven by elite sorting and demographic change demonstrates that powerful non-algorithmic drivers were already producing rapid polarization growth at the start of the framing window, making it less likely that algorithmic curation independently contributed an additional 10% within 2012-2024."
  },
  "premises": [
    {
      "claimId": "cmoxqp34f047g8cssel2hprkd",
      "moid": "426d8e3673439c8996d68e27fb0fd266053c32ebbea701599138d2c91b7a8ad9",
      "text": "Affective polarization in the US has risen sharply since the 1980s, well before social-media saturation, establishing a pre-existing upward trend driven by non-algorithmic forces.",
      "isImplicit": false
    },
    {
      "claimId": "cmoxqp4dk047i8cssr0c07cxw",
      "moid": "10b43b057d69a8f2dc022a94c7f164ab2a764b16a6fd41110bc71681c93d746c",
      "text": "Affective polarization has been accompanied by mass affective polarization since the 1980s driven by elite ideological polarization, well before social-media saturation.",
      "isImplicit": false
    },
    {
      "claimId": "cmoxqp5jy047k8cssiem8eu6k",
      "moid": "7c0b19fe60e7c755140572ce7babda523f04d50abb1a1dc63eba4b1bdd853dd1",
      "text": "Non-white share, partisan sorting, and elite polarization are positively associated with cross-country affective polarization trends, identifying structural drivers that precede and are independent of algorithmic curation.",
      "isImplicit": false
    }
  ],
  "scheme": {
    "id": "cmhuz195z0002g1yoe7h3hlpz",
    "key": "cause_to_effect",
    "name": "Causal Reasoning",
    "title": "Cause to Effect",
    "canonicalKey": "cause_to_effect",
    "behaviourFingerprint": "168068b120139d61daddc55f0f6272b66812b497ee7e11ad1afec187aae1e6bb",
    "catalogueHealth": {
      "isArgumentPattern": true,
      "isDialogueMeta": false,
      "isTestPlaceholder": false,
      "duplicateOf": null,
      "canonicalKey": "cause_to_effect",
      "clusterTagMissing": false,
      "fingerprintMaterialised": true
    }
  },
  "evidence": [],
  "structuredCitations": [],
  "criticalQuestions": {
    "schemeKey": "cause_to_effect",
    "total": 5,
    "answered": [],
    "partiallyAnswered": [],
    "unanswered": [
      {
        "cqKey": "alternative_causes",
        "text": "Could a different cause produce the same effect E in this case?",
        "attackKind": "UNDERCUTS",
        "cqStatusId": "cmoxtnw1n06758cssgt6xuruv",
        "schemeKey": "cause_to_effect",
        "premiseType": "ORDINARY",
        "isSchemeRequired": true,
        "inheritedFromParentScheme": false,
        "cqStatusEnum": "OPEN",
        "challenged": false,
        "challengeCount": 0,
        "cqRequiresEvidence": false,
        "cqBurden": "PROPONENT",
        "answerSelfCanonical": false,
        "answerAuthorKind": "HUMAN",
        "status": "open"
      },
      {
        "cqKey": "causal_mechanism",
        "text": "Is there a plausible causal mechanism by which C could bring about E?",
        "attackKind": "UNDERMINES",
        "cqStatusId": "cmoxtnw1n06768csstoq39lsz",
        "schemeKey": "cause_to_effect",
        "premiseType": "ORDINARY",
        "isSchemeRequired": true,
        "inheritedFromParentScheme": false,
        "cqStatusEnum": "OPEN",
        "challenged": false,
        "challengeCount": 0,
        "cqRequiresEvidence": false,
        "cqBurden": "PROPONENT",
        "answerSelfCanonical": false,
        "answerAuthorKind": "HUMAN",
        "status": "open"
      },
      {
        "cqKey": "causal_strength",
        "text": "How strong is the causal generalization linking C to E? Are there documented cases where C does not produce E?",
        "attackKind": "UNDERCUTS",
        "cqStatusId": "cmoxtnw1n06778cssgu8grseb",
        "schemeKey": "cause_to_effect",
        "premiseType": "ORDINARY",
        "isSchemeRequired": true,
        "inheritedFromParentScheme": false,
        "cqStatusEnum": "OPEN",
        "challenged": false,
        "challengeCount": 0,
        "cqRequiresEvidence": false,
        "cqBurden": "PROPONENT",
        "answerSelfCanonical": false,
        "answerAuthorKind": "HUMAN",
        "status": "open"
      },
      {
        "cqKey": "intervening_factors",
        "text": "Are there intervening or confounding factors that could interfere with the causal chain from C to E?",
        "attackKind": "UNDERCUTS",
        "cqStatusId": "cmoxtnw1n06788css6w2rwll2",
        "schemeKey": "cause_to_effect",
        "premiseType": "ORDINARY",
        "isSchemeRequired": true,
        "inheritedFromParentScheme": false,
        "cqStatusEnum": "OPEN",
        "challenged": false,
        "challengeCount": 0,
        "cqRequiresEvidence": false,
        "cqBurden": "PROPONENT",
        "answerSelfCanonical": false,
        "answerAuthorKind": "HUMAN",
        "status": "open"
      },
      {
        "cqKey": "post_hoc",
        "text": "Is the apparent link between C and E merely a post hoc correlation rather than a causal relation?",
        "attackKind": "UNDERCUTS",
        "cqStatusId": "cmoxtnw1n06798csso3w2ez63",
        "schemeKey": "cause_to_effect",
        "premiseType": "ORDINARY",
        "isSchemeRequired": true,
        "inheritedFromParentScheme": false,
        "cqStatusEnum": "OPEN",
        "challenged": false,
        "challengeCount": 0,
        "cqRequiresEvidence": false,
        "cqBurden": "PROPONENT",
        "answerSelfCanonical": false,
        "answerAuthorKind": "HUMAN",
        "status": "open"
      }
    ]
  },
  "schemeInstance": null,
  "confidence": null,
  "dialecticalStatus": {
    "incomingAttacks": 0,
    "incomingSupports": 0,
    "incomingAttackEdges": 0,
    "criticalQuestionsRequired": 5,
    "criticalQuestionsAnswered": 0,
    "criticalQuestionsOpen": 5,
    "standingScore": 0.5,
    "isTested": false,
    "testedness": "untested",
    "standingState": "untested-default",
    "standingDepth": {
      "challengers": 0,
      "independentReviewers": 0,
      "lastChallengedAt": null,
      "lastDefendedAt": null,
      "confidence": "thin"
    },
    "fitnessBreakdown": {
      "total": 0,
      "components": {
        "cqAnswered": {
          "count": 0,
          "weight": 1,
          "contribution": 0
        },
        "supportEdges": {
          "count": 0,
          "weight": 0.5,
          "contribution": 0
        },
        "attackEdges": {
          "count": 0,
          "weight": -0.7,
          "contribution": 0
        },
        "attackCAs": {
          "count": 0,
          "weight": -1,
          "contribution": 0
        },
        "evidenceWithProvenance": {
          "count": 0,
          "weight": 0.25,
          "contribution": 0
        }
      },
      "weights": {
        "cqAnswered": 1,
        "supportEdges": 0.5,
        "attackEdges": -0.7,
        "attackCAs": -1,
        "evidenceWithProvenance": 0.25
      }
    }
  },
  "deliberation": {
    "id": "cmoxod0e103438css5ojh6ae7",
    "title": null
  },
  "author": {
    "id": "156",
    "displayName": "Advocate B (bot)",
    "kind": "HUMAN",
    "aiProvenance": null
  }
}