For 1980–2024, circulation-induced dynamics account for 45% of summer warming, dominate the European precipitation decline, and account for
For 1980–2024, circulation-induced dynamics account for 45% of summer warming, dominate the European precipitation decline, and account for 55% of continental soil-moisture drying, with particularly large regional shares.
Paper reconstruction — Dunkl, Bastos & Sippel (2026), European summer drying
Dynamic soil-moisture trends closely correspond spatially to dynamic precipitation trends (Pearson correlation = 0.80), indicating precipitation trends drive much of the overall drying pattern.
From 1980 to 2024, warming is 0.64 °C per decade in HIST and 0.29 °C per decade in NAT, so the circulation-induced component accounts for 45% of total summer warming.
European precipitation declines by −0.028 mm d−1 per decade through the dynamic component, while the thermodynamic component offsets this drying by only 6% (0.002 mm d−1 per decade).
Soil moisture declines by −0.41 mm per decade in HIST and −0.23 mm per decade in NAT, implying a 55% dynamic contribution.