Thermodynamic forcing is instead the leading contributor to the continental VPD increase, accounting for about 58% of its trend; dynamic and thermodynamic components consequently have distinct spatial structures.

Thermodynamic forcing is instead the leading contributor to the continental VPD increase, accounting for about 58% of its trend; dynamic and thermodynamic components consequently have distinct spatial structures.

• VPD rises by 0.64 hPa per decade in HIST and 0.27 hPa per decade in NAT; thermodynamic forcing contributes about 58% of the total continental VPD trend. Spatial VPD and temperature trends correlate at 0.83, as expected from the approximately exponential Clausius–Clapeyron increase of saturation vapour pressure with temperature.
  Evidence for this premise (2)

  European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Partitioning post-1980 hydroclimate trends between circulation and thermodynamic forcing

  contributing around 58% to the overall trend

  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-3-p8

  European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Partitioning post-1980 hydroclimate trends between circulation and thermodynamic forcing

  The increase in VPD is consistent with rising temperature and declining soil moisture: VPD increases in both HIST and NAT since 1980 at rates of 0.64 and 0.27 hPa per decade, respectively. The thermodynamic forcing thus emerges as the primary driver of the VPD trend at the continental scale, contributing around 58% to the overall trend. Because saturation water vapour pressure increases approximately exponentially with temperature according to the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, we find an expected high correlation between the spatial patterns of VPD and temperature trends (Pearson correlation = 0.83), with the strongest increase in southeastern Europe and Spain.

  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-3-p8

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• Could another cause explain the effect?Open
• Is this merely correlation (post hoc)?Open

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