Changes in the occurrence of summer weather regimes are associated with the regional dynamic temperature, soil-moisture, and VPD patterns, providing a circulation mechanism for heterogeneous drying.

Changes in the occurrence of summer weather regimes are associated with the regional dynamic temperature, soil-moisture, and VPD patterns, providing a circulation mechanism for heterogeneous drying.

• Three of five identified summer weather regimes have significant frequency trends: declining cyclonic Northern European conditions (WR1), declining Atlantic-anticyclonic/southeastern-European-cyclonic conditions (WR2), and increasing Mediterranean/Central European anticyclonic conditions (WR3). Their occurrence changes are associated with regional dynamic hydroclimate trends.
  Evidence for this premise (1)

  European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Partitioning post-1980 hydroclimate trends between circulation and thermodynamic forcing

  The WRs show a clear imprint on the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables

  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-3-p9
• Three of five k-means-identified summertime weather regimes have statistically significant occurrence trends since 1980: cyclonic Northern European conditions (WR1) and the Atlantic-anticyclonic/southeastern-European-cyclonic bipolar pattern (WR2) decrease, while Mediterranean and Central European anticyclonic conditions (WR3) increase.
  Evidence for this premise (1)

  European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Weather-regime changes as mechanisms of circulation-driven drying

  identifying three weather regimes with statistically significant trends since 1980

  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-4-p1
• The regimes have distinct hydroclimatic spatial imprints, and their occurrence changes are associated with regional trends: WR2 is linked to dynamic temperature trends and fewer cold summer days in Eastern Europe; WR3's increase and WR1's decrease are linked to eastern-European soil-moisture decline; WR1 changes are consistent with western-European soil-moisture trends; and WR2 and WR3 changes are linked to strongest dynamic VPD trends in southern and eastern Europe.
  Evidence for this premise (1)

  European summer drying largely driven by atmospheric circulation changes since the 1980s — Weather-regime changes as mechanisms of circulation-driven drying

  The WRs show a clear imprint on the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables

  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02050-w#unit-4-p2

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• Could a different cause produce the same effect E in this case?Open
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