Conclusion
The premise that background drivers were sufficient to produce polarization without algorithmic exposure does not establish that algorithms cannot contribute additional effects in the 2012-2024 window when adoption became near-universal.
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[DEFENSE-UNDERMINE → 5xks6e premise #1] The Boxell et al. finding covers 1996-2012, a period before near-universal smartphone and social media adoption across age groups. The framing's time window (2012-2024) specifically brackets the period of dramatically increased social media adoption among older Americans who were previously non-users. Multiple causes can contribute to the same outcome; demonstrating that background drivers were sufficient pre-2012 does not establish they account for all post-2012 growth. Therefore, The premise that background drivers were sufficient to produce polarization without algorithmic exposure does not establish that algorithms cannot contribute additional effects in the 2012-2024 window when adoption became near-universal. (Warrant: When causal evidence from one time period is used to rule out effects in a later period with different conditions, the inference fails unless the conditions are shown to be equivalent.)
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- Could a different cause produce the same effect E in this case?Open
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- Is the apparent link between C and E merely a post hoc correlation rather than a causal relation?Open
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